If you’ve been a long-time Cheap Stocks reader, you no doubt recognize that we focus on a relatively small sliver of the investment universe. Deep Value certainly isn’t the only way to invest, and net nets are not the only relevant deep value investment technique; these just happen to be the areas of the market we find most fascinating. Proper asset allocation is still imperative, something that we both embrace, and practice.
To that end, occasionally we run across a website, newsletter, or book that we see as must-read. We’ve just found such a worthy publication, which happens to focus on proper asset allocation, in a simple, easy to understand, easy to replicate, and inexpensive framework.
Jim Picerno’s (editor of the excellent Capital Spectator website), recently launched newsletter, The Beta Investment Report is perhaps the best of its kind. The inaugural issue is jam packed with practical information about building well diversified portfolios, and the ins and outs of asset allocation. It's refreshing to see that Picerno does not shy away from the great debate brought on by the near crash of most asset classes in 2008, that has shaken many investors confidence in the benefits of diversification.
Picerno, formely a writer for Bloomberg, and Wealth Manager Magazine, is a rarity in the world of journalism these days; a great writer who not only knows his craft, but is also an expert in the subject matter he writes about. His passion is obvious, and it comes through loud and clear in his writing style.
To see for yourself, Picerno is offering the inaugural issue of The Beta Investment Report for free, while a full one year subscription runs $235. Sign us up.
Monday, 19 January 2009
Monday, 12 January 2009
Cheap Stocks 21 Net Net Index Update
Its hard to believe that our index of net/nets is nearly one year old. When we introduced the index in February of 2008, we did so as an experiment. What was designed as a naively constructed cap-weighted index, CS21 has had an interesting ride.
Since inception (February 12th 2008) the CS21 Net Net Index is down 25.3%, versus -35% for the Russell Microcap Index, the closest benchmark that we can find.
While we are somehat pleased with the results, they are inconclusive at this point. Due to the extreme volatility and market performance during 2008, it was not the best time to make judgement. We'll continue to monitor this index through 2009.
Only 3 stocks in the index have performed positively since inception:
Adaptec (ADPT)
Weight: 18.7%
Performance: +19.29%
The Finish Line, Inc (FINL)
Weight: 7.57%
Performance: +119.58%
Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS)
Weight: 2.53%
Performance: +134.38%
All other members were in negative territory, some more than 80%, including Leadis Technology (LDIS, -82%), Handleman (HDLM, -88%), Chromcraft Revington (CRC, -92%) and Charles and Colvard (CTHR,-83%). That's par for the course in net/net land, in fact bankruptcies are to be expected. While no index members have yet declared bankruptcy, Handelman is in liquidation. One member, Renovis, was bought out earlier in the year. Rather than replace Renovis, we opted to keep that allocation (originally 3.8%) in cash.
We are in the process of designing a new net/net index, and with the choices of available net/nets much more compelling than when we designed CS21, we look forward to unveiling it.
For more on the Cheap Stocks 21 Net Net Index, including constituents and weights, please search this site.
*The author does not have positions in any of the companies mentioned. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.
Since inception (February 12th 2008) the CS21 Net Net Index is down 25.3%, versus -35% for the Russell Microcap Index, the closest benchmark that we can find.
While we are somehat pleased with the results, they are inconclusive at this point. Due to the extreme volatility and market performance during 2008, it was not the best time to make judgement. We'll continue to monitor this index through 2009.
Only 3 stocks in the index have performed positively since inception:
Adaptec (ADPT)
Weight: 18.7%
Performance: +19.29%
The Finish Line, Inc (FINL)
Weight: 7.57%
Performance: +119.58%
Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS)
Weight: 2.53%
Performance: +134.38%
All other members were in negative territory, some more than 80%, including Leadis Technology (LDIS, -82%), Handleman (HDLM, -88%), Chromcraft Revington (CRC, -92%) and Charles and Colvard (CTHR,-83%). That's par for the course in net/net land, in fact bankruptcies are to be expected. While no index members have yet declared bankruptcy, Handelman is in liquidation. One member, Renovis, was bought out earlier in the year. Rather than replace Renovis, we opted to keep that allocation (originally 3.8%) in cash.
We are in the process of designing a new net/net index, and with the choices of available net/nets much more compelling than when we designed CS21, we look forward to unveiling it.
For more on the Cheap Stocks 21 Net Net Index, including constituents and weights, please search this site.
*The author does not have positions in any of the companies mentioned. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.
Tuesday, 23 December 2008
Premier Exhibitions (PRXI) Battle: Mark Sellers Takes the Fight to Shareholders
Mark Sellers, Managing Member of Sellers Capital, LLC, which owns 16.3% of Premier Exhibitions, recently sent a letter to current shareholders, seeking support for a slate of four independent directors to fill vacancies on Premier's board.
Sellers, who currently serves on the board, believes that the company is not maximizing shareholder value, and squandering both capital and opportunity. Many shareholders, including yours truly, don't disagree.
You may recall Premier from previous posts. The company is probably most best known as the operator of the successful Bodies: The Exhibition, which features whole and partially dissected human bodies, preserved through a technique called "polymer preservation".
Premier is not without its share of controversy, as demonstrated last February on an episode of 20/20, in which the show questioned the source of the bodies used in the exhibitions. While Premier claims to lease the bodies(all said to have died of natural causes)from a Chinese university, 20/20 suggested among other things that some may have been prisoners, and not all died of natural causes. This caused a firestorm of sorts, and sent shares plunging. The company denied these claims, but there was political fallout.
Perhaps more interesting, is Premier's operation of the traveling Titanic exhibits, and more specifically ownership of 3500 Titanic artifacts. The company is also the salvor in posession of the Titanic, with exclusive rights to recover artifacts from thw wreck site. While the Titanic ownership issue is still in the courts, the most recent rulings have been favorable to Premier.
It's no wonder that Sellers is pushing this fight, as Premier shares are down 86% year to date, and currently trade at $1.50. Currently profitable on a trailing 12 month basis, Premier trades at 11 times earnings, and has $9 million in cash and no debt.
For more on Sellers claims, read the Consent Solicitation Agreement dated 12/18/2008. It's an entertaining read, perhapas not so much if you've been a shareholder during this company's descent.
*The author has a position in Premier Exhibitions (PRXI). This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Sellers, who currently serves on the board, believes that the company is not maximizing shareholder value, and squandering both capital and opportunity. Many shareholders, including yours truly, don't disagree.
You may recall Premier from previous posts. The company is probably most best known as the operator of the successful Bodies: The Exhibition, which features whole and partially dissected human bodies, preserved through a technique called "polymer preservation".
Premier is not without its share of controversy, as demonstrated last February on an episode of 20/20, in which the show questioned the source of the bodies used in the exhibitions. While Premier claims to lease the bodies(all said to have died of natural causes)from a Chinese university, 20/20 suggested among other things that some may have been prisoners, and not all died of natural causes. This caused a firestorm of sorts, and sent shares plunging. The company denied these claims, but there was political fallout.
Perhaps more interesting, is Premier's operation of the traveling Titanic exhibits, and more specifically ownership of 3500 Titanic artifacts. The company is also the salvor in posession of the Titanic, with exclusive rights to recover artifacts from thw wreck site. While the Titanic ownership issue is still in the courts, the most recent rulings have been favorable to Premier.
It's no wonder that Sellers is pushing this fight, as Premier shares are down 86% year to date, and currently trade at $1.50. Currently profitable on a trailing 12 month basis, Premier trades at 11 times earnings, and has $9 million in cash and no debt.
For more on Sellers claims, read the Consent Solicitation Agreement dated 12/18/2008. It's an entertaining read, perhapas not so much if you've been a shareholder during this company's descent.
*The author has a position in Premier Exhibitions (PRXI). This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Thursday, 18 December 2008
Cheap Stocks Featured on Capital Spectator Inaugural Podcast
Jim Picerno, editor of The Capital Spectator, perhaps the best site out there primarily devoted to money, economics and oil, interviewed your Cheap Stocks editor for the first edition of his new podcasting series.
If you've got 18 minutes to spare, feel free to give it a listen.
If you've got 18 minutes to spare, feel free to give it a listen.
Saturday, 13 December 2008
Cheap Stocks Land Review 2008: Part II
We continue with Part II of of our 2008 Land Review. These are the same companies we featured in last year's column, and not surprisingly, most are down significantly.
(Market Cap and EV are in $ millions)
Scheid Vineyards
Ticker: SVIN
2007 Price: $35.55
2008 Price: $24.05
Change: -32%
52 High/Low: $37/$21.6
Avg Volume: 900
Mkt Cap: 24
Ent Value: 58 (estimated)
Acres Owned: 1800
2007 EV/Acre: $38,889
2008 EV/Acre: $32,222
Location: California
Primary Use: Vineyards
P/E: NM
Tejon Ranch
Ticker: TRC
2007 Price: $41.43
2008 Price: $26.82
Change: -35%
52 High/Low: $44.5/$20.4
Avg Volume: 81000
Mkt Cap: 456
Ent Value: 402
Acres Owned: 270000
2007 EV/Acre: $2296
2007 EV/Acre: $1491
Location: California
Primary Use: Development/Ag
P/E: 92
St Joes
Ticker: JOE
2007 Price: $31.01
2008 Price: $27.21
Change: -12%
52 High/Low: $46.82/$18.8
Avg Volume: 1660000
Mkt Cap: 2510
Ent Value: 2450
Acres Owned: 610,000 (est)
2007 EV/Acre: $3956
2008 EV/Acre: $4016
Location: Florida
Primary Use: Development/timber
P/E: NM
Texas Pacific Land
Ticker: TPL
2007 Price: $43.45
2008 Price: $23.75
Change: -45%
52 High/Low: $55.15/$16.1
Avg Volume: 26900
Mkt Cap: 245
Ent Value: 234
Acres Owned: 963248
2007 EV/Acre: $464
2008 EV/Acre: $243
Location: Texas
Primary Use: Leased for grazing/oil
P/E: 21
Dividend Yield: .8%
Cadiz
Ticker: CDZI
2007 Price: $19.13
2008 Price: $10.94
Change: -48%
52 High/Low: $21.4/$8.02
Avg Volume: 38500
Mkt Cap: 131
Ent Value: 161
Acres Owned: 45000
2007 EV/Acre: $5444
2008 EV/Acre: $3577
Location: California
Primary Use: Water/ag
P/E: NM
Avatar Holdings
Ticker: AVTR
2007 Price: $38.06
2008 Price: $23.39
Change: -39%
52 High/Low: $58.36/$22.24
Avg Volume: 56400
Mkt Cap: 200
Ent Value: 158
Acres Owned: 32000
2007 EV/Acre: $8094
2008 EV/Acre: $4937
Location: Florida, Arizona
Primary Use: Development
P/E: NM
Pope Resources
Ticker: POPE
2007 Price: $41.78
2008 Price: $17.1
Change: -59%
52 High/Low: $44.5/$15
Avg Volume: 12300
Mkt Cap: 79
Ent Value: 86
Acres Owned: 116068
2007 EV/Acre: $2051
2008 EV/Acre: $ 518
Location: Washington
Primary Use: Timber/Development
P/E: 9
Dividend Yield: 5.8% (company just reduced dividend to $.25/qtr, from $.40/qtr)
Potlach Corp
Ticker: PCH
2007 Price: $45.76
2008 Price: $26.19
Change: -43%
52 High/Low: $44.79/$20.29
Avg Volume: 1014000
Mkt Cap: 1040
Ent Value: 1460
Acres Owned: 1700000
2007 EV/Acre: $1461
2008 EV/Acre: $858
Location: Arizona, Idaho, Minnesota
Primary Use: Timber
P/E: 15
Dividend Yield: 8.4%
Mauna Loa
Ticker: NNUT
2007 Price: $3.55
2008 Price: $1.95
Change: -45%
52 High/Low: $4.37/$1.55
Avg Volume: 20500
Mkt Cap: 15
Ent Value: 18
Acres Owned: 2242
2007 EV/Acre: $13381
2008 EV/Acre: $ 8029
Location: Hawaii
Primary Use: Agriculture
P/E: NM
Keenawaw Land
Ticker: KEWL
2007 Price: $217
2008 Price: $205
Change: -5.6%
52 High/Low: $295.1/$200
Avg Volume: 250
Mkt Cap: 132
Ent Value: 132 (est)
Acres Owned: 151805 (est)
2007 EV/Acre: $927 (est)
2008 EV/Acre: $869
Location: Michigan
Primary Use: Timber
This is not intended to be an exhaustive list of all companies that hold substantial amounts of land. There are others, and perhaps we'll profile some of these in future postings.
*The author holds a position in TRC. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.
(Market Cap and EV are in $ millions)
Scheid Vineyards
Ticker: SVIN
2007 Price: $35.55
2008 Price: $24.05
Change: -32%
52 High/Low: $37/$21.6
Avg Volume: 900
Mkt Cap: 24
Ent Value: 58 (estimated)
Acres Owned: 1800
2007 EV/Acre: $38,889
2008 EV/Acre: $32,222
Location: California
Primary Use: Vineyards
P/E: NM
Tejon Ranch
Ticker: TRC
2007 Price: $41.43
2008 Price: $26.82
Change: -35%
52 High/Low: $44.5/$20.4
Avg Volume: 81000
Mkt Cap: 456
Ent Value: 402
Acres Owned: 270000
2007 EV/Acre: $2296
2007 EV/Acre: $1491
Location: California
Primary Use: Development/Ag
P/E: 92
St Joes
Ticker: JOE
2007 Price: $31.01
2008 Price: $27.21
Change: -12%
52 High/Low: $46.82/$18.8
Avg Volume: 1660000
Mkt Cap: 2510
Ent Value: 2450
Acres Owned: 610,000 (est)
2007 EV/Acre: $3956
2008 EV/Acre: $4016
Location: Florida
Primary Use: Development/timber
P/E: NM
Texas Pacific Land
Ticker: TPL
2007 Price: $43.45
2008 Price: $23.75
Change: -45%
52 High/Low: $55.15/$16.1
Avg Volume: 26900
Mkt Cap: 245
Ent Value: 234
Acres Owned: 963248
2007 EV/Acre: $464
2008 EV/Acre: $243
Location: Texas
Primary Use: Leased for grazing/oil
P/E: 21
Dividend Yield: .8%
Cadiz
Ticker: CDZI
2007 Price: $19.13
2008 Price: $10.94
Change: -48%
52 High/Low: $21.4/$8.02
Avg Volume: 38500
Mkt Cap: 131
Ent Value: 161
Acres Owned: 45000
2007 EV/Acre: $5444
2008 EV/Acre: $3577
Location: California
Primary Use: Water/ag
P/E: NM
Avatar Holdings
Ticker: AVTR
2007 Price: $38.06
2008 Price: $23.39
Change: -39%
52 High/Low: $58.36/$22.24
Avg Volume: 56400
Mkt Cap: 200
Ent Value: 158
Acres Owned: 32000
2007 EV/Acre: $8094
2008 EV/Acre: $4937
Location: Florida, Arizona
Primary Use: Development
P/E: NM
Pope Resources
Ticker: POPE
2007 Price: $41.78
2008 Price: $17.1
Change: -59%
52 High/Low: $44.5/$15
Avg Volume: 12300
Mkt Cap: 79
Ent Value: 86
Acres Owned: 116068
2007 EV/Acre: $2051
2008 EV/Acre: $ 518
Location: Washington
Primary Use: Timber/Development
P/E: 9
Dividend Yield: 5.8% (company just reduced dividend to $.25/qtr, from $.40/qtr)
Potlach Corp
Ticker: PCH
2007 Price: $45.76
2008 Price: $26.19
Change: -43%
52 High/Low: $44.79/$20.29
Avg Volume: 1014000
Mkt Cap: 1040
Ent Value: 1460
Acres Owned: 1700000
2007 EV/Acre: $1461
2008 EV/Acre: $858
Location: Arizona, Idaho, Minnesota
Primary Use: Timber
P/E: 15
Dividend Yield: 8.4%
Mauna Loa
Ticker: NNUT
2007 Price: $3.55
2008 Price: $1.95
Change: -45%
52 High/Low: $4.37/$1.55
Avg Volume: 20500
Mkt Cap: 15
Ent Value: 18
Acres Owned: 2242
2007 EV/Acre: $13381
2008 EV/Acre: $ 8029
Location: Hawaii
Primary Use: Agriculture
P/E: NM
Keenawaw Land
Ticker: KEWL
2007 Price: $217
2008 Price: $205
Change: -5.6%
52 High/Low: $295.1/$200
Avg Volume: 250
Mkt Cap: 132
Ent Value: 132 (est)
Acres Owned: 151805 (est)
2007 EV/Acre: $927 (est)
2008 EV/Acre: $869
Location: Michigan
Primary Use: Timber
This is not intended to be an exhaustive list of all companies that hold substantial amounts of land. There are others, and perhaps we'll profile some of these in future postings.
*The author holds a position in TRC. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.
Tuesday, 9 December 2008
Cheap Stocks Land Review 2008: Part I
Last year at this time, we ended 2007 with a review of some of the companies holding one of our favorite assets, land. I thought last year was difficult, but it pales in comparison with the drubbing that these companies suffered during 2008. Some are down more than 70%, and ultimately, this could be an interesting turn-around story.
One data calculation we use is worthy of explanation:
EV/Acres: Enterprise Value of the company/Total owned acres
Enterprise value is the market value of the firm plus debt, minus cash, and is an approximation of all claims that equity and debt holders have on a firm. We believe EV is a better estimate of true current market value, because it represents all claims investors hold in the capital structure, not just equity.
We use this calculation not to attempt to value the land on a per acre basis, but rather for perspective. The results of this calculation will be all over the board depending on the amount of land a company holds, how prominent it is in a company’s operations, as well as the land’s quality. (Obviously, timber land and marsh land is less valuable than vacation property)
Wherever possible, we obtained the latest acreage figures for each company. The "Change" figure beneath 2007 and 2008 price do not reflect dividends, where applicable. We'll run Part II within the next week.
Below is Part I, the first ten companies.
(Market Cap and EV are in $ millions)
Alexander and Baldwin
Ticker: ALEX
2007 Price: $52.95
2008 Price: $26.30
Change: -50.3%
52 High/Low: 44.52/20.64
Avg Volume: 202000
Mkt Cap: 1090(million)
Ent Value: 1580(million)
Acres Owned: 89440
EV/Acre 2007: $29,897
EV/Acre 2008: $17,665
Location: Hawaii
Primary Use: Agriculture/development
P/E: 7.6
Dividend Yield: 4.9%
Alico
Ticker: ALCO
2007 Price: $35.87
2008 Price: $35.23
Change: -1.7%
52 High/Low: 50.32/22.34
Avg Volume: 18800
Mkt Cap: 260
Ent Value: 287
Acres Owned: 136605
EV/Acre 2007: $2414
EV/Acre 2008: $2101
Location: Florida
Primary Use: Agriculture/Cattle
P/E:
Biloxi Marsh Lands
Ticker: BLMC
2007 Price: $31.00
2008 Price: $8.45
Change: -72.7%
52 High/Low: 36.25/8.45
Avg Volume: 1300
Mkt Cap: 23
Ent Value: 15.65
Acres Owned: 90000
EV/Acre 2007: $778
EV/Acre 2008: $174
Location: Louisiana
Primary Use: Oil and Gas
P/E: 9.7
Dividend Yield: 11.8%
Blue Ridge Real Estate
Ticker: BLRGZ
2007 Price: $31
2008 Price: $8.50
Change: -73%
52 High/Low: 34/8.5
Avg Volume: 45
Mkt Cap: 21
Ent Value: 51
Acres Owned: 16980
EV/Acre 2007: $5468
EV/Acre 2008: $3003
Location: Pennsylvania
Primary Use: Ski resorts, commercial, development
P/E: NM
Consolidated Tomoka Land
Ticker: CTO
2007 Price: $62.74
2008 Price: $37.7
Change: -40%
52 High/Low: 67.13/24
Avg Volume: 24300
Mkt Cap: 216
Ent Value: 237
Acres Owned: 11270
EV/Acre 2007: $31,565
EV/Acre 2008: $21,071
Location: Florida
Primary Use: Commercial, golf, development
P/E: 16.2
Dividend Yield: 1.1%
JG Boswell
Ticker: BWEL
2007 Price: $1025
2008 Price: $450
52 High/Low: 450/1000
Avg Volume: NM
Mkt Cap: 438
Ent Value: 527
Acres Owned: 172000
EV/Acre 2007: $5,988
EV/Acre 2008: $3,064
Location: California
Primary Use: Agriculture/development
Dividend Yield: 3.1%
Maui Land and Pineapple
Ticker: MLP
2007 Price: $26.62
2008 Price: $8.28
Change: -69%
52 High/Low: 8.28/34.25
Avg Volume: 25000
Mkt Cap: 66
Ent Value: 174
Acres Owned: 25400
2007 EV/Acre: $9,764
2008 EV/Acre: $6,850
Location: Hawaii
Primary Use: Development/Agriculture
P/E: NM
PICO Holdings
Ticker: PICO
2007 Price: $34.16
2008 Price: $23.76
Change: 30%
52 High/Low: 48.24/16.06
Avg Volume: 149000
Mkt Cap: 448
Ent Value: 336
Acres Owned: 460000
EV/Acre 2007: $1054
EV/Acre 2008: $730
Location: Nevada
Primary Use: Water/development
P/E: 15.7
Plum Creek Timber
Ticker: PCL
2007 Price: $45.16
2008 Price: $34.99
Change: -22.5%
52 High/Low: 56/27.33
Avg Volume: 4120000
Mkt Cap: 6000
Ent Value: 8430
Acres Owned: 8000000
2007 EV/Acre: $1231
2008 EV/Acre: $750
Location: 18 states
Primary Use: Timber, some development
P/E: 23.5
Dividend Yield: 4.8%
Rayonier
Ticker: RYN
2007 Price: $45.59
2008 Price: $29.58
Change: -35%
52 High/Low: 26.58/49.54
Avg Volume: 1505000
Mkt Cap: 2330
Ent Value: 3070
Acres Owned: 1916272
2007 EV/Acre: $2,115
2008 EV/Acre: $1,602
Location: several states
Primary Use: Timber, some development
P/E: 16.5
Dividend Yield: 6.5%
During the year, we closed our positions in PCL and MLP.
*The author holds positions in BLMC, BWEL, PICO. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
One data calculation we use is worthy of explanation:
EV/Acres: Enterprise Value of the company/Total owned acres
Enterprise value is the market value of the firm plus debt, minus cash, and is an approximation of all claims that equity and debt holders have on a firm. We believe EV is a better estimate of true current market value, because it represents all claims investors hold in the capital structure, not just equity.
We use this calculation not to attempt to value the land on a per acre basis, but rather for perspective. The results of this calculation will be all over the board depending on the amount of land a company holds, how prominent it is in a company’s operations, as well as the land’s quality. (Obviously, timber land and marsh land is less valuable than vacation property)
Wherever possible, we obtained the latest acreage figures for each company. The "Change" figure beneath 2007 and 2008 price do not reflect dividends, where applicable. We'll run Part II within the next week.
Below is Part I, the first ten companies.
(Market Cap and EV are in $ millions)
Alexander and Baldwin
Ticker: ALEX
2007 Price: $52.95
2008 Price: $26.30
Change: -50.3%
52 High/Low: 44.52/20.64
Avg Volume: 202000
Mkt Cap: 1090(million)
Ent Value: 1580(million)
Acres Owned: 89440
EV/Acre 2007: $29,897
EV/Acre 2008: $17,665
Location: Hawaii
Primary Use: Agriculture/development
P/E: 7.6
Dividend Yield: 4.9%
Alico
Ticker: ALCO
2007 Price: $35.87
2008 Price: $35.23
Change: -1.7%
52 High/Low: 50.32/22.34
Avg Volume: 18800
Mkt Cap: 260
Ent Value: 287
Acres Owned: 136605
EV/Acre 2007: $2414
EV/Acre 2008: $2101
Location: Florida
Primary Use: Agriculture/Cattle
P/E:
Biloxi Marsh Lands
Ticker: BLMC
2007 Price: $31.00
2008 Price: $8.45
Change: -72.7%
52 High/Low: 36.25/8.45
Avg Volume: 1300
Mkt Cap: 23
Ent Value: 15.65
Acres Owned: 90000
EV/Acre 2007: $778
EV/Acre 2008: $174
Location: Louisiana
Primary Use: Oil and Gas
P/E: 9.7
Dividend Yield: 11.8%
Blue Ridge Real Estate
Ticker: BLRGZ
2007 Price: $31
2008 Price: $8.50
Change: -73%
52 High/Low: 34/8.5
Avg Volume: 45
Mkt Cap: 21
Ent Value: 51
Acres Owned: 16980
EV/Acre 2007: $5468
EV/Acre 2008: $3003
Location: Pennsylvania
Primary Use: Ski resorts, commercial, development
P/E: NM
Consolidated Tomoka Land
Ticker: CTO
2007 Price: $62.74
2008 Price: $37.7
Change: -40%
52 High/Low: 67.13/24
Avg Volume: 24300
Mkt Cap: 216
Ent Value: 237
Acres Owned: 11270
EV/Acre 2007: $31,565
EV/Acre 2008: $21,071
Location: Florida
Primary Use: Commercial, golf, development
P/E: 16.2
Dividend Yield: 1.1%
JG Boswell
Ticker: BWEL
2007 Price: $1025
2008 Price: $450
52 High/Low: 450/1000
Avg Volume: NM
Mkt Cap: 438
Ent Value: 527
Acres Owned: 172000
EV/Acre 2007: $5,988
EV/Acre 2008: $3,064
Location: California
Primary Use: Agriculture/development
Dividend Yield: 3.1%
Maui Land and Pineapple
Ticker: MLP
2007 Price: $26.62
2008 Price: $8.28
Change: -69%
52 High/Low: 8.28/34.25
Avg Volume: 25000
Mkt Cap: 66
Ent Value: 174
Acres Owned: 25400
2007 EV/Acre: $9,764
2008 EV/Acre: $6,850
Location: Hawaii
Primary Use: Development/Agriculture
P/E: NM
PICO Holdings
Ticker: PICO
2007 Price: $34.16
2008 Price: $23.76
Change: 30%
52 High/Low: 48.24/16.06
Avg Volume: 149000
Mkt Cap: 448
Ent Value: 336
Acres Owned: 460000
EV/Acre 2007: $1054
EV/Acre 2008: $730
Location: Nevada
Primary Use: Water/development
P/E: 15.7
Plum Creek Timber
Ticker: PCL
2007 Price: $45.16
2008 Price: $34.99
Change: -22.5%
52 High/Low: 56/27.33
Avg Volume: 4120000
Mkt Cap: 6000
Ent Value: 8430
Acres Owned: 8000000
2007 EV/Acre: $1231
2008 EV/Acre: $750
Location: 18 states
Primary Use: Timber, some development
P/E: 23.5
Dividend Yield: 4.8%
Rayonier
Ticker: RYN
2007 Price: $45.59
2008 Price: $29.58
Change: -35%
52 High/Low: 26.58/49.54
Avg Volume: 1505000
Mkt Cap: 2330
Ent Value: 3070
Acres Owned: 1916272
2007 EV/Acre: $2,115
2008 EV/Acre: $1,602
Location: several states
Primary Use: Timber, some development
P/E: 16.5
Dividend Yield: 6.5%
During the year, we closed our positions in PCL and MLP.
*The author holds positions in BLMC, BWEL, PICO. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Wednesday, 19 November 2008
Moore (AC) For Less
Its hard to believe that less than 3 weeks after our post on specialty craft retailer AC Moore, shares of this net/net are down another 73%. A share can now be had for the change in your pocket. Mr. Market, in his not so subtle way, is telling us that he does not think AC Moore will survive. And its not just AC Moore, by the way, there are a multitude of other companies also being given the scrap heap treatment.
The company recently reported a $7.5 milliom third quarter loss--that's what the headlines say--but this included a deferred tax valuation charge of $4.7 million. That being said, the top line was not pretty, and further evidence of the recession we find ourselves mired in. Sales fell 4.9%, while same store sales fell 9.4% versus the same period last year. This is one of the most challenging environments for retailers in the past 30 years, and will likely to continue to be so until some consumer confidence is restored.
But the market is currently valuing AC Moore at a negative enterprise value (-$1.4 million), theoretically hating the stock to the point that you are being paid to take shares. Now, it's never that simple, but with cash on the books at $46.8 million ($2.30 per share), total debt of $21.6 million, and net cash of $17 million, or $.84 per share, this company's impending demise may be greatly exaggerated.
With a current book value of $9.17, AC Moore trades at just .08 times book. That may not being meaningful given the current environment. But the bigger questions are whether AC Moore has the ability to ride out this storm, and are shares currently worth more than $.77? I voted in the affirmative yesterday, and initiated a small position.
AC Moore
Ticker: ACMR
Price: $.77
Market Cap: $15.6 million
Net Current Asset Value: $85 million
Cash: $46.8 million
Cash/share: $2.3
Total Debt: $29.7 million
Book Value/Share: $9.17
The risks here are indeed great, this stock is liable to be incredibly volatile, and there's always the risk that it could fall to zero. Panic driven markets have driven the price down more than 70% in the past few weeks alone. Stay Tuned.
*The author has a position in AC Moore. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.
The company recently reported a $7.5 milliom third quarter loss--that's what the headlines say--but this included a deferred tax valuation charge of $4.7 million. That being said, the top line was not pretty, and further evidence of the recession we find ourselves mired in. Sales fell 4.9%, while same store sales fell 9.4% versus the same period last year. This is one of the most challenging environments for retailers in the past 30 years, and will likely to continue to be so until some consumer confidence is restored.
But the market is currently valuing AC Moore at a negative enterprise value (-$1.4 million), theoretically hating the stock to the point that you are being paid to take shares. Now, it's never that simple, but with cash on the books at $46.8 million ($2.30 per share), total debt of $21.6 million, and net cash of $17 million, or $.84 per share, this company's impending demise may be greatly exaggerated.
With a current book value of $9.17, AC Moore trades at just .08 times book. That may not being meaningful given the current environment. But the bigger questions are whether AC Moore has the ability to ride out this storm, and are shares currently worth more than $.77? I voted in the affirmative yesterday, and initiated a small position.
AC Moore
Ticker: ACMR
Price: $.77
Market Cap: $15.6 million
Net Current Asset Value: $85 million
Cash: $46.8 million
Cash/share: $2.3
Total Debt: $29.7 million
Book Value/Share: $9.17
The risks here are indeed great, this stock is liable to be incredibly volatile, and there's always the risk that it could fall to zero. Panic driven markets have driven the price down more than 70% in the past few weeks alone. Stay Tuned.
*The author has a position in AC Moore. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.
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