Friday, 23 January 2009

Retail Net/Nets Part II

The list of net/nets seems to grow longer every day, especially in retail land. This will, in all likelihood, continue as consumers hunker down, retail sales drop further, and market caps suffer as a result. In the end, once the sun comes out again, it's likely that the number of store closing and bankrutpcies will leave the survivors in very good shape. Who on our list of retail net/nets will survive? Very hard to say. We'll leave it at that for now.

Stein Mart
SMRT
Market Cap: $54.2
NCAV: $105.3
Total Debt: $100
Price: $1.28
Cash & Short Term MS: $64.8
Quick Ratio: .6

Shoe Carnival
SCVL
Market Cap: $102.3
NCAV: $133.8
Total Debt: $0
Price: $8.04
Cash & Short Term MS: $9.1
Quick Ratio: .3

Cache
CACH
Market Cap: $26.5
NCAV: $26.8
Total Debt: $4.7
Price: $2.00
Cash & Short Term MS: $25.6
Quick Ratio: 1.6


PC Connection
PCCC
Market Cap: $142.1
NCAV: $153
Total Debt: $4.5
Price: $5.25
Cash & Short Term MS: $46.8
Quick Ratio: 1.6


Tuesday Morning
TUES
Market Cap: $56.6
NCAV: $149.9
Total Debt: $36.5
Price: $1.33
Cash & Short Term MS: $4.9
Quick Ratio: .2


*The author does not have positions in any of the companies mentioned. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.

Tuesday, 20 January 2009

Retail Net/Nets Part I

Given the bad retail numbers we've been seeing- December retail sales were down 2.7% well worse than the -1.2% consensus- it's no wonder investors are shunning retailers these days. The problem is, so are consumers, given the crisis in confidence that is gripping our economy.

It's no surprise that there are now several retail net/nets, in fact, more than we've ever seen. Given the dire retail environment, it's inevitable that there will be a great deal of store closings in the next several months, and perhaps some bankruptcies as well. This certainly does not bode well for the smallest of the small, especially those that lack adequate working capital to bridge the recession, are choked with debt, or just can't weather a major pullback in sales.

In the early days of this site, we featured a couple of retail net/nets, Circuit City, and Duckwall Alco (search for these postings). Both had subsequent substantial run-ups. But times were different, and in Circuit City's case, the company at that time had a lot of cash-unlike the company that recently went under.

The risks here are many. If you do plan on "dumpster diving" in small retail net/nets, do so only with extreme caution. If you take a position, consider having a trailing stop-loss in place, which may help protect some of your capital, but is still no guarantee.

We recently had a position in AC Moore, and as the stock price increased, continued to move our trailing stop upward. But we were ultimately stopped out, on one of the many volatile trading days late in 2008. We still made a profit, but unfortunately left quite a bit on the table.

As always, proceed with caution. This is a toxic environment for retailers. We'll break the list into two parts, and run the other later this week.


Current Retail Net/Nets

A.C. Moore Arts & Crafts
ACMR
Market Cap: $29.8
NCAV: $85.1
Total Debt: $30.7
Price: $1.47
Cash & Short Term MS: $46.8
Quick Ratio: .8


MarineMax, Inc.
HZO
Market Cap: $45.1
NCAV: $130.1
Total Debt: $372
Price: $2.44
Cash & Short Term MS: $30.2
Quick Ratio: .2

Perfumania Holdings, Inc.
PERF
Market Cap: $33.9
NCAV: $42.7
Total Debt: $214
Price: $3.78
Cash & Short Term MS: $2.7
Quick Ratio: .3

West Marine, Inc.
WMAR
Market Cap: $124.2
NCAV: 151.5
Total Debt: $29.3
Price: $5.64
Cash & Short Term MS: $6
Quick Ratio: .4


Zale Corporation

ZLC
Market Cap: $91.8
NCAV: $92.7
Total Debt: $368
Price: $2.88
Cash & Short Term MS: $39.4
Quick Ratio: .3

Signet Jewelers Ltd.
SIG
Market Cap: $803
NCAV: 977.3
Total Debt: $613
Price: $9.42
Cash & Short Term MS: $36
Quick Ratio: 1.1

Duckwall-ALCO Stores, Inc
DUCK
Market Cap: $40
NCAV: 67.8
Total Debt: $56
Price: $10.50
Cash & Short Term MS: $5
Quick Ratio: .4

*The author does not have positions in any of the companies mentioned. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.

Monday, 19 January 2009

Looking Outside Our Narrow World of Deep Value

If you’ve been a long-time Cheap Stocks reader, you no doubt recognize that we focus on a relatively small sliver of the investment universe. Deep Value certainly isn’t the only way to invest, and net nets are not the only relevant deep value investment technique; these just happen to be the areas of the market we find most fascinating. Proper asset allocation is still imperative, something that we both embrace, and practice.

To that end, occasionally we run across a website, newsletter, or book that we see as must-read. We’ve just found such a worthy publication, which happens to focus on proper asset allocation, in a simple, easy to understand, easy to replicate, and inexpensive framework.

Jim Picerno’s (editor of the excellent Capital Spectator website), recently launched newsletter, The Beta Investment Report is perhaps the best of its kind. The inaugural issue is jam packed with practical information about building well diversified portfolios, and the ins and outs of asset allocation. It's refreshing to see that Picerno does not shy away from the great debate brought on by the near crash of most asset classes in 2008, that has shaken many investors confidence in the benefits of diversification.

Picerno, formely a writer for Bloomberg, and Wealth Manager Magazine, is a rarity in the world of journalism these days; a great writer who not only knows his craft, but is also an expert in the subject matter he writes about. His passion is obvious, and it comes through loud and clear in his writing style.

To see for yourself, Picerno is offering the inaugural issue of The Beta Investment Report for free, while a full one year subscription runs $235. Sign us up.

Monday, 12 January 2009

Cheap Stocks 21 Net Net Index Update

Its hard to believe that our index of net/nets is nearly one year old. When we introduced the index in February of 2008, we did so as an experiment. What was designed as a naively constructed cap-weighted index, CS21 has had an interesting ride.

Since inception (February 12th 2008) the CS21 Net Net Index is down 25.3%, versus -35% for the Russell Microcap Index, the closest benchmark that we can find.

While we are somehat pleased with the results, they are inconclusive at this point. Due to the extreme volatility and market performance during 2008, it was not the best time to make judgement. We'll continue to monitor this index through 2009.

Only 3 stocks in the index have performed positively since inception:
Adaptec (ADPT)
Weight: 18.7%
Performance: +19.29%

The Finish Line, Inc (FINL)
Weight: 7.57%
Performance: +119.58%

Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS)
Weight: 2.53%
Performance: +134.38%

All other members were in negative territory, some more than 80%, including Leadis Technology (LDIS, -82%), Handleman (HDLM, -88%), Chromcraft Revington (CRC, -92%) and Charles and Colvard (CTHR,-83%). That's par for the course in net/net land, in fact bankruptcies are to be expected. While no index members have yet declared bankruptcy, Handelman is in liquidation. One member, Renovis, was bought out earlier in the year. Rather than replace Renovis, we opted to keep that allocation (originally 3.8%) in cash.

We are in the process of designing a new net/net index, and with the choices of available net/nets much more compelling than when we designed CS21, we look forward to unveiling it.

For more on the Cheap Stocks 21 Net Net Index, including constituents and weights, please search this site.

*The author does not have positions in any of the companies mentioned. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.

Tuesday, 23 December 2008

Premier Exhibitions (PRXI) Battle: Mark Sellers Takes the Fight to Shareholders

Mark Sellers, Managing Member of Sellers Capital, LLC, which owns 16.3% of Premier Exhibitions, recently sent a letter to current shareholders, seeking support for a slate of four independent directors to fill vacancies on Premier's board.

Sellers, who currently serves on the board, believes that the company is not maximizing shareholder value, and squandering both capital and opportunity. Many shareholders, including yours truly, don't disagree.

You may recall Premier from previous posts. The company is probably most best known as the operator of the successful Bodies: The Exhibition, which features whole and partially dissected human bodies, preserved through a technique called "polymer preservation".

Premier is not without its share of controversy, as demonstrated last February on an episode of 20/20, in which the show questioned the source of the bodies used in the exhibitions. While Premier claims to lease the bodies(all said to have died of natural causes)from a Chinese university, 20/20 suggested among other things that some may have been prisoners, and not all died of natural causes. This caused a firestorm of sorts, and sent shares plunging. The company denied these claims, but there was political fallout.

Perhaps more interesting, is Premier's operation of the traveling Titanic exhibits, and more specifically ownership of 3500 Titanic artifacts. The company is also the salvor in posession of the Titanic, with exclusive rights to recover artifacts from thw wreck site. While the Titanic ownership issue is still in the courts, the most recent rulings have been favorable to Premier.

It's no wonder that Sellers is pushing this fight, as Premier shares are down 86% year to date, and currently trade at $1.50. Currently profitable on a trailing 12 month basis, Premier trades at 11 times earnings, and has $9 million in cash and no debt.

For more on Sellers claims, read the Consent Solicitation Agreement dated 12/18/2008. It's an entertaining read, perhapas not so much if you've been a shareholder during this company's descent.

*The author has a position in Premier Exhibitions (PRXI). This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.

Thursday, 18 December 2008

Cheap Stocks Featured on Capital Spectator Inaugural Podcast

Jim Picerno, editor of The Capital Spectator, perhaps the best site out there primarily devoted to money, economics and oil, interviewed your Cheap Stocks editor for the first edition of his new podcasting series.

If you've got 18 minutes to spare, feel free to give it a listen.

Saturday, 13 December 2008

Cheap Stocks Land Review 2008: Part II

We continue with Part II of of our 2008 Land Review. These are the same companies we featured in last year's column, and not surprisingly, most are down significantly.

(Market Cap and EV are in $ millions)
Scheid Vineyards
Ticker: SVIN
2007 Price: $35.55
2008 Price: $24.05
Change: -32%
52 High/Low: $37/$21.6
Avg Volume: 900
Mkt Cap: 24
Ent Value: 58 (estimated)
Acres Owned: 1800
2007 EV/Acre: $38,889
2008 EV/Acre: $32,222
Location: California
Primary Use: Vineyards
P/E: NM

Tejon Ranch
Ticker: TRC
2007 Price: $41.43
2008 Price: $26.82
Change: -35%
52 High/Low: $44.5/$20.4
Avg Volume: 81000
Mkt Cap: 456
Ent Value: 402
Acres Owned: 270000
2007 EV/Acre: $2296
2007 EV/Acre: $1491
Location: California
Primary Use: Development/Ag
P/E: 92

St Joes
Ticker: JOE
2007 Price: $31.01
2008 Price: $27.21
Change: -12%
52 High/Low: $46.82/$18.8
Avg Volume: 1660000
Mkt Cap: 2510
Ent Value: 2450
Acres Owned: 610,000 (est)
2007 EV/Acre: $3956
2008 EV/Acre: $4016
Location: Florida
Primary Use: Development/timber
P/E: NM

Texas Pacific Land
Ticker: TPL
2007 Price: $43.45
2008 Price: $23.75
Change: -45%
52 High/Low: $55.15/$16.1
Avg Volume: 26900
Mkt Cap: 245
Ent Value: 234
Acres Owned: 963248
2007 EV/Acre: $464
2008 EV/Acre: $243
Location: Texas
Primary Use: Leased for grazing/oil
P/E: 21
Dividend Yield: .8%

Cadiz
Ticker: CDZI
2007 Price: $19.13
2008 Price: $10.94
Change: -48%
52 High/Low: $21.4/$8.02
Avg Volume: 38500
Mkt Cap: 131
Ent Value: 161
Acres Owned: 45000
2007 EV/Acre: $5444
2008 EV/Acre: $3577
Location: California
Primary Use: Water/ag
P/E: NM

Avatar Holdings
Ticker: AVTR
2007 Price: $38.06
2008 Price: $23.39
Change: -39%
52 High/Low: $58.36/$22.24
Avg Volume: 56400
Mkt Cap: 200
Ent Value: 158
Acres Owned: 32000
2007 EV/Acre: $8094
2008 EV/Acre: $4937
Location: Florida, Arizona
Primary Use: Development
P/E: NM

Pope Resources
Ticker: POPE
2007 Price: $41.78
2008 Price: $17.1
Change: -59%
52 High/Low: $44.5/$15
Avg Volume: 12300
Mkt Cap: 79
Ent Value: 86
Acres Owned: 116068
2007 EV/Acre: $2051
2008 EV/Acre: $ 518
Location: Washington
Primary Use: Timber/Development
P/E: 9
Dividend Yield: 5.8% (company just reduced dividend to $.25/qtr, from $.40/qtr)

Potlach Corp
Ticker: PCH
2007 Price: $45.76
2008 Price: $26.19
Change: -43%
52 High/Low: $44.79/$20.29
Avg Volume: 1014000
Mkt Cap: 1040
Ent Value: 1460
Acres Owned: 1700000
2007 EV/Acre: $1461
2008 EV/Acre: $858
Location: Arizona, Idaho, Minnesota
Primary Use: Timber
P/E: 15
Dividend Yield: 8.4%


Mauna Loa
Ticker: NNUT
2007 Price: $3.55
2008 Price: $1.95
Change: -45%
52 High/Low: $4.37/$1.55
Avg Volume: 20500
Mkt Cap: 15
Ent Value: 18
Acres Owned: 2242
2007 EV/Acre: $13381
2008 EV/Acre: $ 8029
Location: Hawaii
Primary Use: Agriculture
P/E: NM

Keenawaw Land
Ticker: KEWL
2007 Price: $217
2008 Price: $205
Change: -5.6%
52 High/Low: $295.1/$200
Avg Volume: 250
Mkt Cap: 132
Ent Value: 132 (est)
Acres Owned: 151805 (est)
2007 EV/Acre: $927 (est)
2008 EV/Acre: $869
Location: Michigan
Primary Use: Timber



This is not intended to be an exhaustive list of all companies that hold substantial amounts of land. There are others, and perhaps we'll profile some of these in future postings.



*The author holds a position in TRC. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.